OUR GREAT MINDS

    by Tina Olivero

    DNV: OCEAN’S FORECAST REPORT TO 2050

    The exponential growth of offshore wind power will be the main driver of a nine-fold increase in demand for ocean space by the middle of the century, according to DNV’s Ocean’s Future to 2050 report. 

    The report forecasts that by midcentury, offshore wind will require ocean space which is the equivalent to the landmass of Italy. The growth will be particularly pronounced in regions with long coastlines and presently have low penetration of offshore wind.

    Demand for ocean space is set to grow 50-fold in the Indian Subcontinent and 30-fold in North America.

    The rise of wind will be pivotal to the transformation of the Blue Economy. Currently, 80 percent of capital expenditure in the Blue Economy is invested in the offshore oil and gas sector, but by 2050 that number will have dropped to 25 percent.  By then, offshore wind will receive the largest investments, accounting for half of all capital expenditure. 

    The decreasing prominence of oil and gas will be largely responsible for capex inflows into the Blue Economy being less in 2050 than today, whilst operating expenditure will increase below GDP growth. 

    The Blue Economy will be more focused on Asia with Greater China set to account for more than a quarter of capex by 2050 as it builds out its offshore wind capacity and marine aquaculture.

    The Blue Economy is entering a period of sectoral and geographic diversification,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV. “Currently, the regions which benefit most from the ocean in economic terms are those with access to oil and gas fields off their coastlines. But as the world decarbonizes and the need for renewable energy grows, countries not able to be part of the age of fossil fuel can be part of the age of wind.”

    The growing economic strength of Asia and the energy transition will also impact the maritime sector.  After years of faster-than-GDP growth, seaborne trade will only grow 35% to 2050, while global GDP almost doubles. 

    Bulk will remain the largest segment in the merchant fleet, despite reduced demand for coal transportation.  Tankers will be overtaken by container vessels as the second largest segment, even if demand for gas tankers remains robust. 

    COVID 19 will have no long-term impact on cruise industry and berth capacity will triple by 2050.

    Aquaculture production will more than double by the middle of the century, approaching the level of wild catch.  But seafood (inland and marine) will account for only 9% of global protein demand in 2050. 

    Total sustainable annual catch is forecast to be 95 million metric tonnes by mid-century, exceeding the maximum yield of marine capture fisheries and stressing the need for optimal fisheries management.

    Ocean’s Future to 2050 is a holistic forecast of the Blue Economy and covers areas as diverse as food, energy, shipping, tourism, desalination, ocean health and spatial planning.


    REPORT SUMMARY & LINKS

    1. Offshore wind will overtake the oil and gas sector to receive the largest investments in the Blue Economy 
    Offshore wind will grow from a small base to account for 50% of ocean capital expenditure (capex) in 2050.  Over the same timeframe, the oil and gas industry will shrink from 80% of total capex to just 25%. By 2050, offshore wind will provide about as much energy as offshore oil, the production of which will shrink 51%  compared with 2019 levels. Capex in the Blue Economy will reduce from USD 517 billion in 2018 to USD 461 billion in 2050. Operational expenditure (opex) will grow more slowly than global GDP.
    Read more about the Blue Economy

    2. The Blue Economy will be dominated by Asia. Greater China will establish itself as the global powerhouse of the Blue Economy and its leading investor by 2050. Europe will maintain a strong position, growing from 11% to 14% of capex in the next three decades.
    Read more about the Blue Economy

    3. There will be a 9-fold increase in demand for ocean space for aquaculture and energy production 
    Offshore wind will require 82% of the total occupied area by 2050. Growth in demand for ocean area from aquaculture and energy production in the Indian Subcontinent, is set to increase 50-fold. In North America, and the Middle East and North Africa spatial requirements will grow 30-fold. 
    Read more about Spatial competition

    4. The energy transition and increasing purchasing power of Asia will alter outlook for shipping. After years of faster-than-GDP growth, seaborne trade will only grow 35% to 2050, while global GDP almost doubles. This is due to increased consumption in Asia combined with the decline of coal and oil transport. The merchant fleet sees bulk remaining the largest segment in tonnage, even as the coal trade declines, while tankers are overtaken by container vessels as the second largest segment. Gas carriers will outpace oil product tankers. New special vessel segments will emerge to serve the offshore wind industry. Special vessels will grow 31% in tonnage and 53% in value to 2050. COVID 19 will have no long-term impact on cruise industry and berth capacity will triple by 2050.
    Read more about Ocean Energy

    5. Aquaculture production to match capture fisheries by 2050. Aquaculture production will more than double by the middle of the century, approaching the level of wild catch. But seafood (inland and marine) account for only 9% of global protein demand in 2050. We forecast total annual catch to be 95 Mt by mid-century, exceeding the maximum sustainable yield of marine capture fisheries and stressing the need for optimal fisheries management. 
    Read more about Food and Aquaculture
    About DNV

    DNV is the independent expert in risk management and assurance, operating in more than 100 countries. Through its broad experience and deep expertise DNV advances safety and sustainable performance, sets industry benchmarks, and inspires and invents solutions. 

    Whether assessing a new ship design, optimizing the performance of a wind farm, analyzing sensor data from a gas pipeline or certifying a food company’s supply chain, DNV enables its customers and their stakeholders to make critical decisions with confidence. 

    Driven by its purpose, to safeguard life, property, and the environment, DNV helps tackle the challenges and global transformations facing its customers and the world today and is a trusted voice for many of the world’s most successful and forward-thinking companies.

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