OUR GREAT MINDS

    by Tina Olivero

    Newfoundland and Labrador Rebounds

     Newfoundland and Labrador will have the fastest economic growth in the Atlantic provinces in 2019 as it rebounds from this year’s decline, according to APEC’s latest Atlantic Report. Growth continues in the Maritimes but at a slightly softer pace than in 2018.

    “As Newfoundland and Labrador ends its long decline in major project investment its economy will rebound in 2019 with a 2.9% increase in output,” says APEC Senior Policy Analyst, Fred Bergman. “Higher Hebron oil production and a rebound in mining output will drive these gains,”APEC predicts moderate employment growth in 2019, with gains ranging from 0.3% in New Brunswick to 1.5% in Prince Edward Island. “Rising interest rates will slow spending on durable goods and housing investment, while real incomes will remain flat,” says Bergman. Global growth will remain strong in 2019 with a 3.7% gain. The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement will help reduce trade uncertainty while ratification of the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership should provide some stimulus to Atlantic exports as countries such as Japan reduce their tariffs.

    Outlook by Province

    Newfoundland & Labrador

    • Newfoundland and Labrador’s economy continues to struggle in 2018, with real GDP predicted to fall 1.6%, due to weaker mining output and declining major project investment.
    • APEC expects an economic rebound in 2019 with 2.9% real GDP growth as oil production at Hebron picks up, mining production rebounds and major project investment ends its long decline.

    Prince Edward Island

    • APEC forecasts economic growth in Prince Edward Island will be 2.2% this year. The higher population is elevating household spending and residential investment but non-residential investment and exports have declined.
    • Positive gains in population support real GDP growth of 2% in 2019 although weaker investment, tourism, and exports will temper growth.

    Nova Scotia

    • APEC forecasts 1.3% economic growth this year in Nova Scotia, helped by higher home construction, manufacturing and exports.
    • In 2019, real GDP growth will slow to 1% as the housing market cools along with a slowdown in major project investment, but recent immigration and international student gains provide an upside to the outlook.

    New Brunswick

    • APEC forecasts the New Brunswick economy will grow 1.2% in 2018, boosted by robust wages, investment, and exports.
    • In 2019, real GDP growth will moderate to 1.1% as major project and housing investment slow.  Job growth will be marginal in 2019, but it will benefit from rising immigration.

    To obtain a copy of the Atlantic Report please contact: Erica Parrill
    Communications & Events Manager
    Atlantic Provinces Economic Council
    m: 902.702.2701
    o: 902.422.6516
    erica.parrill@apec-econ.ca

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